Global Dynamics: Approaches from Complexity Science

A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid.

This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions.  This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales.

Global dynamics:

• Presents in depth models of global dynamics.
• Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.
• Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.
• Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.
• Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.

This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.

Table of Contents

Part I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE
Chapter 1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science

Part II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Chapter 2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution
Chapter 3 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade
Chapter 4 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input–Output Model

Part III MIGRATION
Chapter 5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres
Chapter 6 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe
Chapter 7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows – An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data

Part IV SECURITY
Chapter 8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat
Chapter 9 Riots
Chapter 10 Rebellions
Chapter 11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy
Chapter 12 Space–Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq
Chapter 13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict

Part V AID AND DEVELOPMENT
Chapter 14 International Development Aid: A Complex System
Chapter 15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid
Chapter 16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective

Part VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES
Chapter 17 An Integrated Model